First thing first, let's state the conclusion: FY 2024, which is this year’s H-1B second round lottery will definitely happen, most likely in July, and the probability of being selected may even exceed that of the first round.
Why? Here’s the math behind it!
When analyzing the official data published by USCIS
First round total petitions submitted: 758,000
Single entry (who only entered for one H-1B petition): 350,000
Multiple entries (from 96,000 people): 409,000
Selected petitions: 111,000
Not selected petitions: 647,000
Based on the probability distribution:
Number of people selected with a single entry : 111,000 * 350,000 / 758,000 = 51,000
Petitions total that were selected from people with multiple entries: 111,000 * 409,000 / 758,000 = 60,000
Number of people selected with multiple entries: 60,000 * 96,000 / 409,000 = 14,000
Based on the submission and approval rates:
Minimum single entry quota used: 51,000 * 0.62 = 31,500
Maximum single entry quota used: 51,000 * 0.72 = 36,700
Minimum multiple entry quota used: 14,000 * 0.35 = 4,900
Maximum multiple entry quota used: 14,000 * 0.5 = 7,000
Minimum total quota used: 36,400
Maximum total quota used: 43,700
Remaining quota range: 41,300 to 48,600
In conclusion, after the first round H-1B lottery, and declared actions against Multiple and fraud petitioners said by USCIS there are approximately at least 40,000 remaining spots. The next question is:
If the second H-1B lottery this year will be selected from all remaining registrations, the estimated probability is:
Min: 41,300 * 1.5 / 647,000 = 9.6%
Max: 48,600 * 1.5 / 647,000 = 11.3%
If the second H-1B lottery this year only selects from all remaining single registrations, the estimated probability is:
Min: 41,300 * 1.5 / 299,000 = 20.7%.
Max: 48,600 * 1.5 / 299,000 = 24.4%.
Here’re the reasons why the second round could have a higher selection rate:
USCIS has publicly released data on single and multiple entries for the first time this year, intending to warn and crack down on the issue of multiple registrations through illegal means
There is a significant amount of serious abuse and fraud in the registrations for multiple entries. Clearly, the legality and validity of such registrations are highly questionable, and most registrations require further investigation, verification, and confirmation.
From the perspective of those who participated in the multiple entry round, on average, each person had four entries. From a fair overall perspective, the second round (the next upcoming draw) will only select from those who registered once.
Therefore, in conclusion, this year's probability of being selected by H-1B second round lottery is around 10% to 25%
If you’re not selected in the first or the second round of H-1B lottery, there’s still ways for you to legally work in the US
Day 1 CPT is a legal pathway for full-time employees to keep their jobs while pursuing a degree.
