H1B Second Lottery 2023

On April 14th, the official website of the USCIS announced the data on participation in the H-1B lottery for fiscal year 2023 (FY2023).

Source: USCIS

Some people calculated this number online and said that based on the experience of the previous two years, the lottery rate remained above 40%.

After the first round of the lottery this year, the lottery rate was only 26.3%, indicating that the lottery will continue.

But in fact, the 127,600 first-draft number and the 26.3% percentage are not important. You can skip it. There are many applications, the quota remains unchanged, and the lottery rate drops. It is normal. From here, you can't see the hope of h1b second lottery at all.

However, among the 127,600 applications drawn by the lottery (note that it is the number of applications, not the number of applicants), how many applicants behind the applications went to file in the end?

USCIS has never announced this important percentage. We can only analyze it by the previous data we have.

Assuming that in 2021 and 2022, the number of final winners has really reached 85,000 files. But:

 

Source: USCIS

Looking at the weighted average alone, the FY 2023 application abandonment rate should be at least around 34%.

So, of the 127,600 applications in the first draft, 34% would have to be thrown away, leaving 84,216. This figure is fairly close to the red line of 85,000. Heart skipped a beat when reading it? 

We all thought h1b second lottery was out of the game, didn't it? However, the weighted average may not be so useful this year. 

First of all, we need to understand why some people work so hard to draw lots, but they do not go to file if they are selected.

But there are two main factors that affect abandonment rates in general: economic conditions and the level of H1B abuse.

Let’s talk about the economic situation first: the worse the economy, the higher the unemployment rate, the greater the possibility of sea fishing, and the higher the winning rate of sea fishing.

This happened in 2020. The application started in March, and the first wave of files ended in June.

Then, due to the raging epidemic, the economy was sluggish. In just three months, many people who were selected did not have time to file. Unemployed or decided to return home.

Since February 2020, the unemployment rate in the United States has hit a record high due to the impact of the epidemic.

In 2021, the economic situation has recovered, and the unemployment rate has plummeted from 11% in 2020 to 5.6%. Strangely, the rate of giving up and not filing in the lottery has not declined.

Lawyers from major immigration law firms are holding hands. data is also puzzling. When the tide is gone and the wind is quiet, and the dust settles and the truth is revealed, everyone finds that the problem lies in the abuse of the H1B lottery system.

In theory, an applicant can submit a multiple-point application to participate in the H1B lottery, which is a legal act. It very reasonable if you company support you to join H1B lottery wether  your performance is outstanding, or you are a leader in the industry.

In other words, behind the 480,000 applications this year, there must be no 480,000 living people.

But it don't stop there. Because the application cost is too low, many people who are not a leader can also rely on crooked ways to create 20+ companies to support him in the lottery.

Of course, not the majority of people submit 20+ applications. After all, if he can find 20+ companies to support him, his business is not top-notch, and he is considered a top performer.

But the bottom line is that there are many cases where one person submits 6, 7, 8, and 9 applications at the same time.

This has created a situation in which the rate of abandoning H1B files has steadily increased year after year even though the unemployment rate has doubled.

Someone on Twitter shared that 12 applications were submitted

However, USCIS is not blind. Since 2017, it has officially announced on its website that it will crack down on such abuses. However, in conclusion, it is very difficult to implement.

There has to be a time lag. Judging from the current situation, after a few years of practice, not only did the veterans have no intention of stopping, but in the past two years, they have become more and more familiar.

This year, the number of 480,000 applications is very high, and the industry is discussing it. I think that after one round, it would be good to have 50k files.

USCIS vows to crack down on H1B abuse, however, to date, with limited success

Charles Cook, an adjunct law professor at the University of Georgia who was involved in a lawsuit against the immigration lottery system abusing quotas, revealed that he refused to rely on reliable sources. rate (18,000 people).

Halfway through the file period, less than 18,000 people actually took the second step, and this has not reduced those files that will be brushed down for various reasons. Many lawyers in the industry commented on H1B abuse on his Twitter, and said that even if mid-to-late June is the peak period for File, it is estimated that the second round is inevitable.

If you find out about the H1B Abuse situation, don’t keep silent. This is related to you and other students who have gone forward one after another. Everyone’s well-being needs to be fought for together. Hands-on reporting of H1B abuse.

In addition, the Youtuber "H1B Guy" revealed that the application centers in some parts of the United States have begun to transfer cases to other application centers due to the heavy workload. The update of the overall application process this year has also been lagging behind.

In other words, H1b second lottery arrival may be late because USCIS has fewer people and is not busy.

After all, the information from the previous round of applications will be kept until the end of September, and there may be another round of fishing before the end of September.

Having said that, not to mention the abuse part, smoking H1B is largely a lucky event. If we can't be the chosen one, we can't surrender on the spot.

So let’s make some preparations:

What if i didn’t win the h1b second lottery?

Visa you can consider:

O1/ EB1A/ EB1B/ NGO/ NPO/ L1/ E2/ Marriage Green card/ B2/ Day 1 CPT

• O1/ EB1A&EB1B:

For the outstanding talents with outstanding skills.

• NGO/NPO:

Exempt from H1B work, dedicated to niche work and suitable for group use.

• L1 and E2:

Are for consideration by people with wealth to invest.

• Marriage Green card:

Getting married.

• B2:

B2 will extend the suspension period for a few months at most.

• Day 1 CPT

The method of exclusion tells us that reading is a broad road that can carry all of us. You can expand your scientific research path, apply for research and apply for a postgraduate program, or apply for a postgraduate program that supports Day 1CPT.

You can work and study together. If you study STEM, you can still have OPT and OPT extentions after the end.

If you are concerned about applying for CPT schools and don't know how to choose, I think the easiest way is to look at the cost-effectiveness. 

At present, there are three cost-effective CPT projects, and those who are interested can learn about them in advance.