If you're currently on OPT and didn't receive a selection notice in the first round of the FY 2026 H-1B lottery, you're likely feeling anxious. The question at the top of your mind:
With a selection rate as high as 35%, is there still a realistic chance for a second round?
It’s a fair question — and the short answer is: maybe, but the odds are lower this year. Let’s unpack what this unusually high selection rate means and what you should be doing right now to protect your immigration status and career plans.
How Unusual Is a 35% Selection Rate?
This year, USCIS selected 120,141 registrations out of 343,981 eligible entries, resulting in a 35% selection rate. That’s the highest selection rate since the current electronic registration system began in FY 2021.
For comparison:
Why the FY2026 H1B Lottery Looks So Different: Key Factors Behind the Drop in Registrations
The FY2026 H1B lottery reflects a leaner and more tightly regulated system, and several converging factors help explain the sharp decline in total registrations and a surprisingly high 35% selection rate.
1. Beneficiary-Centric Selection Process
USCIS introduced a beneficiary-centric selection process, ensuring that each applicant is entered into the lottery only once, regardless of the number of employers submitting registrations on their behalf. This reform has significantly reduced duplicate entries and speculative filings, leading to a more streamlined and fair selection process.
2. Higher Registration Fee
The H1B registration fee is increasing from $10 to $215 per beneficiary, effective FY2026 (for the 2025 filing season). This sharp increase in cost makes it more expensive for IT consulting companies (often called "ICC") and staffing agencies to submit large numbers of speculative applications, especially for candidates without confirmed job placements.
3. Economic Factors Influencing Employer Participation
The U.S. tech industry is still recovering from multiple rounds of layoffs and widespread hiring freezes in 2024 and early 2025. Major H1B sponsors like Google, Meta, and Amazon have pulled back on hiring, leading to fewer employer-submitted H1B registrations.
According to layoffs.fyi, over 100,000 tech jobs were cut in 2024 alone — severely impacting demand for new H1B sponsorships.
4. Meta Lawsuit Raises Legal and Ethical Concerns
In early 2024, Meta (Facebook’s parent company) was sued by a former employee who claimed the company gave unfair preference to H1B visa holders over qualified domestic candidates. The case has drawn national attention and raised concerns among large employers about the risks of perceived discrimination in foreign hiring practices — especially under the renewed scrutiny of a Trump-era immigration policy climate.
This lawsuit has made many companies more cautious and conservative in sponsoring foreign workers to avoid regulatory and reputational backlash.
Will the 35% Selection Rate Trend Continue?
Taking into account the four factors that contributed to this year's surge in selection rate—the beneficiary-centric selection process, increased registration fees, economic conditions, and heightened legal scrutiny—it is likely that the elevated H-1B selection rate seen in FY 2026 could persist in the coming years. What implications does this have for OPT students, particularly those with STEM OPT?
STEM OPT students have a 24-month extension beyond the initial 12-month OPT period, giving them up to three chances to enter the H-1B lottery.
Assuming the 35% selection rate continues:
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First Attempt: 35% chance of selection.
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Second Attempt: 35% of the remaining 65% = 22.75%.
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Third Attempt: 35% of the remaining 42.25% = 14.79%.
Cumulatively, the probability of being selected over three attempts is:
1 - (1 - 0.35)^3 = 1 - 0.2746 = 72.54%
So, a STEM OPT student has approximately a 72.5% chance of being selected for an H-1B visa over three attempts, assuming consistent selection rates and no significant policy changes. The odds are much better than before. Therefore, even though this year's chance to have a 2nd lottery is relatively low, don't give up your hope. Meanwhile,
What Should OPT Students Do Now if Not Selected?
If you weren’t selected in the first round, it’s essential to have a backup plan. Waiting passively could put you at risk of falling out of status.
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✅ Stay informed about second-round updates from USCIS
Monitor your SEVP portal and USCIS announcements around July/August. -
✅ Consider enrolling in a Day 1 CPT program
If you're running out of time and need to maintain legal F-1 status while working, this is one of the most practical options available (more on this below).
Day 1 CPT: A Legal Pathway to Stay, Study, and Work
Day 1 CPT (Curricular Practical Training) programs allow F-1 students to start working from the first day of their program — ideal for professionals who want to stay employed while pursuing a graduate degree.
Why It Makes Sense for H-1B Hopefuls:
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You stay in valid F-1 status while continuing to work legally.
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Many schools offer hybrid or flexible formats, so you don’t have to relocate.
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You can buy time for another H-1B attempt without triggering unlawful presence.
At GoElite, we specialize in helping international students find Day 1 CPT programs that align with their work experience, academic goals, and visa history.
💡 Not sure which CPT programs fit your situation?
👉 [Get Your Personalized University List ]
We’ll send you a curated list of schools and help prepare for your consultation — so you can make your next move with confidence. Or you can book a free consultation with our expert directly after you provided your email ↓