H-1B Headline
Yesterday, on July 31, 2023, USCIS announced that the second round of H1B visa lottery has been completed.
Per our prediction, the second lottery would has a 10% selection rate, which is proven correct. The additional lottery itself has an approximately 12% selection rate, which adds up to the total selection rate to be around 25%. Currently, applicants can check the final results for the H1B lottery through the immigration agency's system. If selected, their status will be changed to "Selected."
As of now,
77,600 New Petitions were Selected in the Second Round, which adds up to a total of 188,400 selected among the H1B lottery for this year.
(FY 2024) The total selection rate 24.8%, is still lower than last year’s (FY 2023) 26.9%
It’s worth to note that, the second lottery of FY 2024 didn’t excluded petitioners selected in the first round, meaning that beside detected frauds that were removed by the lottery, all petitioners entered the second lottery, even if some were already selected and might even be approved
H-1B Second Lottery, What Do We See?
Since the USCIS had several announcements and actions to take care of a part of the multiple registration fraud cases, particularly this year, it looks like the H1B approval rate could be lower than the previous few years, given that we have 408,891 multiple registration cases for individuals and a good proportion didn’t play by the rule and might not file for H1B due to the now circumstances or get rejected.
| Fiscal Year | H-1B Case Approval Rate |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 77.8% |
| 2019 | 98.0% |
| 2020 | 97.3% |
| 2021 | 92.9% |
It looks very convincing that even USCIS made a huge pool of selections in the SECOND ROUND, it’s still not gonna be enough for the H1B annual quota. The numbers are suggesting we have a real chance of getting a third H1B lottery this year, just as FY 2022. However, If you look more carefully beyond the numbers and to USCIS’s intention and this now changed situation, we predict no third round H1B lottery for this year.
Why Is H-1B Third Lottery 2024 Unlikely to Happen?
Normally, as the remaining quota decreases, the selection rate should be lower. However, after the first round of lottery, multiple sources from Twitter and Reddit, provided by law offices, indicated that the actual application rate was only slightly over 40%. Therefore, in the second round, the USCIS did certainly select more applicants than the actual number of remaining slots.Because,
If we calculate the application rate for the first round to be over 40% less than 50%, then there are still approximately 30,000 to 35,000 available slots, for the 77,600 selected
If the immigration agency expects the application rate for the second round to be similar to the first round, around 40% to 50%, and taking into account the negligible 2% rejection rate for H1B visas, they would likely select 60,000 registrations in the second round. In fact, they selected almost 80,000. Which can possibly add almost 40,000 new H1B visas to this year’s quota and is higher than our 30-35k estimation
Even though, there’re still multiple registration petitioners and H1B petition rejections, we do not anticipate it to be significant enough still having a gap between H1B approvals and the 85,000 annual quota.
After the previous round of lottery, there were 648,203 registrations eligible for the second round. Using the numbers mentioned earlier, the approximate selection rate would be around 12%.
If our analysis is correct and the immigration agency did select significantly more applicants in the second round than they need, it is unlikely that there will be a third round of the lottery.
Alternatives to H-1B Work Visa
If your petition was not selected in the H1B lottery, it’s okay. There are several other options available for you to have legal status to stay in the US, as well as to work. Some viable alternatives include but not limited to:
“There is no legal advice in this article, talk to a lawyer if you need legal assistance! ”
O-1 Visa
Consider applying for an O-1 visa if your H1B lottery application was not chosen. The O-1 visa is designed for individuals who possess extraordinary abilities in fields like science, education, business, arts, athletics, or those who have gained exceptional recognition in the entertainment industry. It might sound very difficult to get, but if you’re in entertainment and art industry, the chances might be better. Consult with a lawyer to review your eligibility.
Cap-Exempt H1B
When you enter the job market, also pay attention to cap-exempt H1B employment opportunities. Institutions of higher education, affiliated nonprofit entities, nonprofit organizations, or governmental research organizations are exempt from the H1B cap and can file petitions year-round. If their H1B petition is approved by USCIS, you can work for the employer, and start any time throughout the year.
L-1 Visa
If you work for a company with a base in the US and another country, you may be eligible for an L-1 visa. To qualify, you should have served in a managerial, executive, or specialized knowledge position for at least one year within the last three years. The L-1 visa can also be utilized to establish an affiliated office in the US if your foreign company doesn't have a office there.
Day 1 CPT
Day 1 CPT universities that you could enroll in to study and Work on an F1 Visa. These universities can provide you with CPT authorizations, allowing you to work full-time while pursuing your studies in the US. Both OPT and CPT are legal-to-work authorizations recognized by the USCIS. This option is particularly popular for those who are ineligible for O1 and L1 visas and prefer not to pursue cap-exempt H1B jobs.
If you’re not selected in the first or the second round of H-1B lottery, there’s still ways for you to legally work in the US
Day 1 CPT is a legal pathway for full-time employees to keep their jobs while pursuing a degree.
