Newest Update Sep 2022:
This morning, we’ve received an email from the USCIS officially announcing that the FY2023 H1B lottery has reached 85,000, and the 65,000 regular caps and 20,000 master caps have all been drawn.
This means that everyone is looking forward to the second h1b lottery this year has officially announced that it will not come.
The status of all friends who are not drawn will be changed from Submitted to Not Selected.
The lottery for the H1B2023 fiscal year has officially ended. We all know that the number of lottery draws this year has skyrocketed. Why? By analyzing the data of the past three years, we have predicted the trend of the H1B lottery in the future, and summarized the O1 outstanding talent visa and other ways to stay in the United States, which lower the application standards. H1B may not be the best way to stay.
This article is based on a lecture jointly organized by Meng Law Group and CPTDog.
H1b Lottery Data Analysis
In fact, it is difficult to draw lots this year. Everyone already knew when the Immigration Bureau announced the total number of registrations in April this year. The annual quota remains unchanged at 85,000, including 6,800 places that must be given to Chilean and Singaporean citizens, but the total number of registrations is as high as 483,927, and the winning rate is only about 17%, which is lower year by year.
Lawyer Meng's Perspective
Starting in fiscal year 2021, the total number of H1B registrations has been increasing year by year, due to the introduction of the electronic registration lottery (H1B Online Registration) in the United States starting in 2020. This change is intended to save employers and applicants energy, time and money. Before 2020, each applicant needs to prepare all the application materials and send them to the Immigration Bureau to be considered as a successful application. Regardless of whether they are selected or not, this means that many people’s materials will not be read at the end, because they Did not draw. After submitting the application online, you only need to pay the application fee of $10, and you can submit the materials and various fees after you have been selected by the lottery.
It may sound great, but due to lower costs, the total number of sign-ups has also climbed. The following figure is the data collation of the H1B lottery in the past three years. As can be seen from the figure, the total number of people in 2021 will be more than 270,000, in 2022 will be more than 300,000, and by fiscal year 2023, there will be 470,000.
The growth trend is very obvious, so if the number of signatures in H1B remains unchanged, the denominator gets bigger and bigger, the numerator stays the same, and the winning rate gets lower and lower.
Why are there two rounds of draws?
To put it simply, because some people do not submit materials after the lottery, there will be vacancies, which will lead to the occurrence of the second or even the third round of the lottery. Specifically, in the 2021 fiscal year, more than 100,000 people were drawn in the first round. As a result, many people were drawn but did not submit materials, so there were vacancies, so there was a second round of draws.
Last year, the Biden administration took office, and the number of first-round lottery tickets was reduced because USCIS believes that the denial rate will be lower this year, which also matches the approval rate, H1B approval for fiscal year 2022 The rate is as high as 90%-95%. But I didn't expect that not only the first round, but also many people did not submit materials after the second round, so there was only the third round. In the first round of this year, the total number of 2-3 rounds of the previous two years was probably drawn.
Based on the current situation, the total number of registrations should be higher next year.
Will there be changes in the future?
Based on the current situation, the overall number of registrations should be higher next year, as long as the system of lottery by the Immigration Bureau does not change.
The popularity of the H1B lottery shows that the U.S. job market is booming?
We cannot completely rule out the possibility that there may be more companies willing to hire foreign workers because of the shortage of employees with U.S. status. In general, although the U.S. economy has been greatly affected by the epidemic, the job market remains strong.
However, according to "folk" analysis, there may also be a lot of moisture in H1B as a whole. H1B Abuse is a big reason for that. H1B abuse in the United States has always existed. In simple terms, it means that one person draws more than one person. The most well-known ICC** (**full name Indian Consulting Companies, Indian consulting company) is a typical representative of H1B Abuse.
As H1B becomes more and more difficult, many people choose to have multiple employers draw lots for him, and the competition becomes more and more fierce, which eventually forms such a vicious circle. If there are no effective measures to curb them, in fact, it will be the same for several rounds, and the difficulty of the lottery will become more and more difficult every year.
No one can solve the H1B Abuse?
In fact, some students have filed lawsuits before, but they all ended in failure. The main reason for the failure is that the USCIS did not violate the constitution. Maybe the system of the immigration bureau's lottery is not the optimal solution. The lottery method may be unfair, but as long as it is not illegal, the judge has no way to sentence them.
In fact, many lawmakers have submitted relevant bills, but basically they have not yet entered the substantive processing stage. Although the H1B Abuse thing has a certain degree of heat in various social media, I personally think that the real reform still depends on the Immigration Bureau. Maybe it would be easier if they really wanted to solve it, but for now, it seems difficult.
In the next article, we will discuss whether O1 and L1 are good alternatives at a time when H1B is becoming more and more difficult to draw?
In particular, the Biden administration has lowered the threshold for O1 visas recently. Can more small partners rely on O1 to go ashore? Please look forward to it. If you find this article helpful, and if you have classmates, colleagues or friends who need to apply to Day 1 CPT schools, please forward this article to them!
